it's cool that we have to do kremlinology of our foreign policy--because the American public has been considered too dumb to be told why what we're doing is in our interests or even what our interests are--for my entire life
One of the IDF heads is on record that the Trump administration is their last chance for a war with Iran. Iran is getting stronger while America is getting weaker.
China is a juggernaut, and the dominant economic power in the global majority. During the age of imperialism, the European powers divided up the world using military force. China doesn’t have to do that they alone are the dominant manufacturing power house. If they step in, protect Iran from collapse, and broker a deal it is game over for the GAE. They will be viewed by the rest of the world as a reliable partner and protector.
That will leave the U.S. with a trillion dollar military that does nothing - Doesn’t protect US markets as there are none. Doesn’t protect access to resources since all those resources go through Asia. Doesn’t protect US companies operating abroad, they are either multinational or foreign owned.
So if Trump was even thinking about China (I doubt it) he has probably hasten its rise.
China could choose to do nothing instead of playing into a potential trap. This would force them seek oil from other sources, but they already hold considerable strategic reserves to cushion them while sourcing alternatives. Iran is not as strategically important to China as western commentators insist. I go over the numbers here: https://otterlycorrect.substack.com/p/braindead-geopolitics
Iran is also a critical part of the North-South Transportation Corridor from St. Petersburg down through Astrakhan, over the Caspian Sea and finally down through the middle of Iran, all the way to the coast. It would shave off multiple days of shipping compared to the old days of having to go all the way around Europe. Of course, the West thinks this is immoral.
it's cool that we have to do kremlinology of our foreign policy--because the American public has been considered too dumb to be told why what we're doing is in our interests or even what our interests are--for my entire life
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.
just look at the map no need for anything else.
"They will flip back to watching sports while muttering about how Trump wins again. Like it or not, that is how things work in American politics."
Honestly this is how all politics works worldwide.
One of the IDF heads is on record that the Trump administration is their last chance for a war with Iran. Iran is getting stronger while America is getting weaker.
China is a juggernaut, and the dominant economic power in the global majority. During the age of imperialism, the European powers divided up the world using military force. China doesn’t have to do that they alone are the dominant manufacturing power house. If they step in, protect Iran from collapse, and broker a deal it is game over for the GAE. They will be viewed by the rest of the world as a reliable partner and protector.
That will leave the U.S. with a trillion dollar military that does nothing - Doesn’t protect US markets as there are none. Doesn’t protect access to resources since all those resources go through Asia. Doesn’t protect US companies operating abroad, they are either multinational or foreign owned.
So if Trump was even thinking about China (I doubt it) he has probably hasten its rise.
China could choose to do nothing instead of playing into a potential trap. This would force them seek oil from other sources, but they already hold considerable strategic reserves to cushion them while sourcing alternatives. Iran is not as strategically important to China as western commentators insist. I go over the numbers here: https://otterlycorrect.substack.com/p/braindead-geopolitics
Iran is also a critical part of the North-South Transportation Corridor from St. Petersburg down through Astrakhan, over the Caspian Sea and finally down through the middle of Iran, all the way to the coast. It would shave off multiple days of shipping compared to the old days of having to go all the way around Europe. Of course, the West thinks this is immoral.
I have started calling him George W Trump.
We’re not there yet.
We seem to be heading there inexorably.