Then What?
One of the critical questions in any strategy is "Then what?" This question must be asked with every proposed move and counter move. The question is both a reminder and an assumption that the other players will react to your move. Good strategy focuses on the range of possibilities to each move and is prepared for them. Bad strategy just assumes the move will work and good things will flow from it. This is often referred to as the lack of second-order thinking.
For the last five years this has been at the center of American politics. The regime has clearly lost the ability to ask, much less answer the question, "Then what?" The war in Ukraine is in its fourth year because no one in the West could bother to ask the question, much less answer it. President Trump now has himself in a terrible jam because no one on his team thought to ask this question when they were plotting the Pearl Harbor style sneak attack on Iran.
It does not appear that any of them asked the question when planning the operation against the Iranian bunker facilities. By the looks of it, they settled on this attack because they assumed it would satisfy the Israelis, satisfy the crazies in Washington screaming for blood and provide an off-ramp in the conflict. Signaling to Iran that it was a one-time thing was supposed to induce them back to the bargaining table or at least encourage them to seek a cease fire in the war.
The assumed answer to the magic question was all the good things the administration needs to happen in order to wriggle free from this trap. Perhaps sensing that it was not the magic bullet, they immediately started to beg China to pressure Iran into not closing the Strait of Hormuz. Presumably they asked the Russians to do the same thing, as the Iranian foreign minister is in Moscow this week. Closing the strait would bring the whole thing crashing down on Trump's head.
While the Iranians are prepared to close the strait, they have not done so, but they continue to send missiles at Israel and Israel is firing back. It is clear that the Iranians are not going to come back to the bargaining table, and they have no intention of ending the war with Israel. Of course, Israel is now demanding more strikes because it was never about Iranian nukes for them. It was always about inducing the United States into a ground war to topple the Iranian government.
President Trump is justifiably getting savaged by his voters, but in fairness to him he now lives in a town that operates like Jonestown. Everyone worships Israel or at least pretends they worship Israel. It is beyond creepy to see everyone in Washington act like Israel is the god of the world. Some sort of mass psychosis has swept the ruling class where they are convinced that their purpose in life is to serve the needs of this flyspeck of a country halfway around the world.
That just makes the crisis worse for the Trump administration. Even if they can have a moment of clarity and see the danger, they are limited in their options. If they do no more than provide support for Israel, they remain entangled in a war of attrition, while the crazies scream for blood, holding the domestic agenda hostage. They cannot make a deal with Iran, as the Israel lobby will never permit it. The only way out is to end the Israel lobby and that means tanks in the streets.
That is the thing about the question at the start. It not only forces the person answering it to think about the possible reactions from the other players, but it forces them to think clearly about the other players. If the Trump people had a realistic understanding of Israel and the Israel lobby, they would know they are dealing with hostile aliens who look at the United States as a Walmart during a ghetto riot. They would know how to treat them as adversaries, rather than allies or clients.
The same can be said for the approach to Ukraine. That has been pushed off to the side, but the neocons have not gone away. As things reach a critical point in the war this autumn, they will be back to extort the Trump admin. Given the duplicity of the Republican Party, the big, beautiful bill will probably still be held hostage in the Senate come the autumn, so it will be another round of extortion in order to give the neocons what they want in the war against Russia.
In a way, the crisis engulfing the Trump administration in the realm of foreign policy is a microcosm of what faces America. The MAGA movement finally got their man into the White House with the clear support of the public. There is a team in place that can execute the domestic agenda. Then what? The answer so far has been a revolt in the judiciary against the Trump agenda, the Republican Party holding his legislative agenda hostage, and the usual suspects subverting his foreign policy.
Cancer does not leave the body just because the body voted to live. The cancer must be removed and that is the answer to the question, "Then what?" That appears to be impossible within the current rules, which brings us back to the question that seems to haunt this age. The current crisis is a gordian knot that cannot be untied within the rules of the system, so then what? For now, the Trump people do not have the answer, but the answer is there, just waiting its turn.
There are no negotiations which will result in peace from any sort of actual Islamist regime. The goal of Islam is to bring all nations under submission to Allah, that's what Islam *means* - submission. They intend to bring the whole world into submission to their law - shari'a. I've known Muslims, and if you get to know them, they'll tell you that directly - one in my old research group, whose father bought his wife from her father at the age of six weeks, whom he met for the first time on their wedding night, when her submission was transferred from her father to him, by the marriage contract. The price paid was one hundred ounces of gold, one new car, and assorted camels, goats, and household goods - at the time, her future husband was two months old. He owned everything she had - and her children - and could divorce her by saying "I divorce thee" three times in the presence of two male Muslim witnesses, at which point she would go back to her father's house and he could do with her as he pleased - which might result in a quick death. If you think this is a favorable state of affairs, consider that you can forget about having dogs for pets - they're as haram as pigs, listening to music or even worse, making it, drinking any sort of alcohol in public including beer - a friend in Saudi got 1000 lashes with a cane for stepping out of his house with a beer - and so on. Doing haram - forbidden - things gets you swift and severe punishment. Of course, they'd prefer your submission to be peaceful, but if not, well then, it's war, but submission (or your death) is the intended final result. That's the choice, so far as Islam is concerned, there's no treaty with infidels which will be honored, it's only a step on the road to absolute surrender - submission. Dar ul-Islam - the land of Islam - or Dar ul-Harb - the land of War - that's the choice. Letting an Islamic regime have nuclear weapons in light of that will answer your question - "then what?".
Bleak but fair.