The American Alcibiades

One of the features of the Trump era has been the sense of chaos that seems to surround everything about the man. Whether as a candidate, as president or as the hero in the fight against the villains of Washington, there is always a whirlwind of action around him that makes understanding it difficult. We now see this in his foreign policy which looks more like a game of flipping over tables and smashing things than a coherent strategy to advance national interests.

The most recent example is the caper to regime change Iran in the middle of negotiations to end the half century cold war with them. Despite the mountain of lies, it is clear that the plan was to decapitate the Iranian government, attack the nuclear facilities and then usher in a regime change. Israel went after military leaders, political leaders, and the top nuclear scientists. They also attacked what they thought were their key nodes in their air defense system.

Despite Trump's denials, it is clear that the Trump admin knew about this scheme from the start and helped make it possible. When it looked like it was successful, Trump posted about how negotiations were just a ruse to get the Iranians into a false sense of security, but he changed gears once it was clear the scheme failed. He also claimed to have vetoed the killing of Ali Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader of Iran, but that is just damage control after the fact.

As an aside, if you want to get a sense of who really runs American foreign policy, look at the parallels between this sneak attack on Iran and the sneak attack on the Russian strategic bombers. Both used pre-programmed drones launched from trucks. Both used negotiations as a ruse. Both served the interests of those who wanted to halt negotiations with the targeted party. In both of these cases, we see the same fingerprints, but who belongs to those fingerprints is not clear.

That aside, the plan failed. After the initial shock, Iran was able to quickly respond to the attacks with what has been a very effective missile campaign. They also got their air defense system back online and now Israel jets have to operate well outside of their range, which limits what Israel can attack inside Iran. Israel, of course, is lobbying Trump to attack Iran, but so far, he has resisted. The rumor at the moment is that Israel is quietly asking for a truce.

To make things more complicated, Chinese aircraft are landing in Iran, presumably with missiles for Iran. These could also be North Korean missiles. China is Iran's biggest customer for energy products. China is an 80% owner in the South Pars gas field, which is part of the North Dome field, the biggest on earth. Of course, Russia has a security agreement with Iran and is no doubt providing intelligence for Iranian missile strikes on key targets inside Israel.

On the surface, this looks like a disaster. There is no reason for Iran to do a deal with Washington after this betrayal of basic diplomatic norms. There is no reason for Iran to take the deal on officer, if they decided to come back to the table. They have leverage now, so they will demand much more from Trump. The Israel lobby is now in crisis as the options here are terrible. If Trump green lights an attack on Iran's nuclear bunkers, we probably get a regional war that America cannot afford.

The Israel lobby does not care about the damage done to America or the American people, but they do care about Israel. What the weekend revealed is that the vaunted Israel air defense system is a paper tiger. Iran was able to overload it and is now hitting targets inside Israel at will. A regional war could very well mean the end of Israel or at least turning Tel Aviv into Gaza. Expect to hear the usual big mouths like Lindsay Graham demanding a truce in the air war this week.

Attacking Iran brings other risks. It is clear that Iran can reach out and touch American assets in the region. That includes naval assets. Trump called off the operation against the Houthis due to both the cost and the risk to American assets. Iran is orders of magnitude more powerful than Yemen. Then you have the American bases in Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. There are secret bases that do not appear on any map in Saudi Arabia where the U.S. military operates.

Then there is the elephant in the room. If Trump escalates, the Iranians will probably close the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis will shut off access to the Red Sea. That means a third of the world's oil supply stops flowing. What Trump has to ponder, therefore, is whether this is worth gas lines and perhaps rationing. Disrupt the flow of energy and the rest of the world gets involved in this war. The rest of the word does not care about the psychological wellbeing of the Israelis.

Rational people look at this and conclude that Trump will do the rational thing and avoid taking the bait, while working to get a truce. Rational people forget that a rational actor would never have signed off on the sneak attack. Two data points does not make a pattern, but Trump has signed off on two Pearl Harbor style schemes in just the few months he has been in office. This morning brings news that an "armada" of refueling planes left for the Middle East.

Note also that Stealth Bombers have been positioned at Diego Garcia for months, which is from where an attack on Iran's nuclear bunkers would be launched. These are the planes that can drop the bunker busters that could possibly get to the underground facilities housing Iran's nuclear program. Trump has been talking about Iran and Israel maybe getting a truce deal done. Given Trumps habit of attacking the people with whom he is negotiating, an attack in Iran is probably imminent.

Regardless of whether Trump throws gasoline on this fire or not, the region is now in chaos and that seems to please Trump. Not only that, but his base of support in the United States is sharply divided. The old people who let Fox News do their thinking are waving the flag and screaming for blood. The younger side takes the phrase "America First" literally, so they oppose another pointless war of choice. Trump is now blasting people like Tucker Carlson over this situation.

That seems to be the goal of the Trump chaos. Another feature of the Trump era is that he never gains anything from the chaos. In this situation, he has the Israel Lobby on their heels, so he could get an Iran deal done that ends this issue for good. There is no reason to think he will take advantage of the opportunity. It is why the way to bet is on an attack this week. It is the one option guaranteed to create more chaos, which seems to be the narcotic of Trump's choosing.

Perhaps this is just a symptom. Trump as the Mule from the Asimov novel could be what happens at the end of democratic empire. Athens also suffered from a mercurial figure at the end of their empire. Alcibiades, known for his personal ambition, ego and unpredictable behavior, was a key figure in the downfall of Athens. Perhaps that is what we are seeing with Trump. He is the American Alcibiades presiding over the final phase of the American empire.