Another angle is to look at Trump’s media company stock, DJT. It’s up 8.41 today and has damn near quadruped in the last month/month and a half. That can’t be signaling an expected defeat. 90% of the country will know the election was categorically jobbed if Harris somehow “wins”.
Polls are pretty useless right now. Who answers an unknown caller on their cell phone? It used to be that if you called someone in the 313 area code, you got someone in or around Detroit, but now people have phones with area codes all over the place. Anyway, I am a lot more focused on what happens after the "election" because either Trump wins and the Left goes violently berserk or Cumala "wins" and the cheating will have to be rampant for that to happen. Either way it promises to get a little spicy.
Pollsters understand this. They are not calling random numbers, asking people who they plan to vote for in the election. Their biggest problem is that the people willing to spend the time being polled are not reflective of the typical voter, who has no interest in these calls.
Frankly, I suspect many polls are fake. I played a small role in unearthing Research 2000 fraud a quarter century ago. I was in a forum that analyzed polls and I suspected the polling from them was not on the level. I then discovered that it was a one man shop operating in a home outside of DC. Not long after some stat heads published their findings and the scandal broke.
It is too easy to fake this stuff and too tempting. There is no penalty for being wrong.
If comprehensive election reform could be seriously enacted, banning polls on pain of public flogging would be high on my list of things to do after the revolution. Maybe not top five, but certainly top 10.
I would be in favor of banning public polling. Private polls would be fine, but any release of them would be illegal. Alternatively, we could require all public polls to include their raw data and their modeling algos. Deliberate fraud would carry mandatory prison time.
This would remove the incentive to cheat, but also remove the incentive to create what the customer wants from the poll. Generating a bogus poll for ABC, for example, would be exposed right away because we would see the raw data and the code behind the model.
Trump would probably make a better martyr than executive. The persecution of him by Kamela-Walz would just make the winds blow harder. These times feel more Trends and Forces and less Great Man. The election of trump is actually an off-ramp for them in their suicide pact with trannies and migrants, you can see little shoots of common sense starting to sprout in places. 4 years of fund raising and chastised self-reflection is the best possible thing that could happen to the democrat party right now. What are the real chances of right wing success at killing off the administrative state when the GOP is still run by the Mike Johnson’s and McConnells? If I was a democrat I wouldn’t be all that worried about 4 more years of Trump. And I don’t think their leadership is especially worried. Worse case scenario for them is that they raise more money than god and get to clean out some dead wood. They will benefit more than anyone by a lessening of DEI strictures, and their love of DEI is going to take a hit if Trump gets elected.
Another angle is to look at Trump’s media company stock, DJT. It’s up 8.41 today and has damn near quadruped in the last month/month and a half. That can’t be signaling an expected defeat. 90% of the country will know the election was categorically jobbed if Harris somehow “wins”.
Polls are pretty useless right now. Who answers an unknown caller on their cell phone? It used to be that if you called someone in the 313 area code, you got someone in or around Detroit, but now people have phones with area codes all over the place. Anyway, I am a lot more focused on what happens after the "election" because either Trump wins and the Left goes violently berserk or Cumala "wins" and the cheating will have to be rampant for that to happen. Either way it promises to get a little spicy.
Pollsters understand this. They are not calling random numbers, asking people who they plan to vote for in the election. Their biggest problem is that the people willing to spend the time being polled are not reflective of the typical voter, who has no interest in these calls.
Frankly, I suspect many polls are fake. I played a small role in unearthing Research 2000 fraud a quarter century ago. I was in a forum that analyzed polls and I suspected the polling from them was not on the level. I then discovered that it was a one man shop operating in a home outside of DC. Not long after some stat heads published their findings and the scandal broke.
It is too easy to fake this stuff and too tempting. There is no penalty for being wrong.
If comprehensive election reform could be seriously enacted, banning polls on pain of public flogging would be high on my list of things to do after the revolution. Maybe not top five, but certainly top 10.
I would be in favor of banning public polling. Private polls would be fine, but any release of them would be illegal. Alternatively, we could require all public polls to include their raw data and their modeling algos. Deliberate fraud would carry mandatory prison time.
This would remove the incentive to cheat, but also remove the incentive to create what the customer wants from the poll. Generating a bogus poll for ABC, for example, would be exposed right away because we would see the raw data and the code behind the model.
I suspect the same thing, who is going to really check if they called 1,500 registered voters?
“A little spicy” indeed.
Trump would probably make a better martyr than executive. The persecution of him by Kamela-Walz would just make the winds blow harder. These times feel more Trends and Forces and less Great Man. The election of trump is actually an off-ramp for them in their suicide pact with trannies and migrants, you can see little shoots of common sense starting to sprout in places. 4 years of fund raising and chastised self-reflection is the best possible thing that could happen to the democrat party right now. What are the real chances of right wing success at killing off the administrative state when the GOP is still run by the Mike Johnson’s and McConnells? If I was a democrat I wouldn’t be all that worried about 4 more years of Trump. And I don’t think their leadership is especially worried. Worse case scenario for them is that they raise more money than god and get to clean out some dead wood. They will benefit more than anyone by a lessening of DEI strictures, and their love of DEI is going to take a hit if Trump gets elected.